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Two NBA Gambling Locks For Saturday, Oct. 29 – OutKick – OutKick
Football is king in sports betting and America but don’t forget about the good ole NBA. We got a 7-game NBA slate Saturday featuring a rematch of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks.
Below, I’ll make cases for the Bucks covering against the Hawks and the Memphis Grizzlies boat-racing the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City.
Atlanta Hawks (4-0) at Milwaukee Bucks (4-1)
The Bucks host the Hawks at the Fiserv Forum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off Saturday. Both teams are on the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B).
Atlanta crushed the Detroit Pistons Friday 136-112 as 6-point road favorites. The Hawks swept the Pistons in a B2B in the Motor City Wednesday and Friday.
Milwaukee handled business against the New York Knicks 119-108 at home, covering as 6-point favorites. The Bucks were 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Hawks last season.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Moneyline (ML): Hawks (+175), Bucks (-205)ATS: Hawks +5 (-110), BUCKS -5 (-110) Total (O/U) — 229 — O: -110, U: -110
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Milwaukee’s defense
The Bucks have the best non-garbage time defensive rating in the NBA, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and they have the perfect backcourt to defend the Hawks.
Milwaukee PG Jrue Holiday was on NBA’s All-Defensive second-team last season and SG Jevon Holland is an on-ball defensive specialist.
Holiday and Holland will have success vs. Atlanta All-Star PG Trae Young and newly acquired G Dejounte Murray because they have the best defensive player in the world backing them up.
Milwaukee Bucks Jrue Holiday locking up Atlanta Hawks Trae Young at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Waleed Zein/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo locking down the paint, all opponents can do vs. the Bucks is hope they get hot from behind the arc. But, the Hawks like to operate in the mid-range.
In fact, Atlanta attempts the highest volume of mid-range field goals, per CTG. Milwaukee has the 2nd-best defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range shot attempts.
Also, the Hawks run a ton of pick-and-roll (PnR) action through Young and Murray but the Bucks have the 8th-best defensive efficiency vs. PNR through ball handlers.
Terrible spot for Atlanta
The Hawks are 8-28 SU and 9-27 ATS (-3.6 ATS margin) as road underdogs vs. teams with a winning record since 2020. Atlanta is 1-4 in its last five visits to Milwaukee.
Furthermore, the Hawks have underperformed the market’s expectations thus far. Atlanta is just 2-3 ATS despite playing a bunch of teams projected to miss the playoffs.
Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo knows he’s the apex predator of the NBA. (John Fisher/Getty Images)
Giannis is on a war path after being eliminated in the 2nd-round of last season’s playoffs and passed up in the last two MVP votes. He’s 2nd behind Luka Doncic in points per game (PPG), PER, and Win Shares per 48 minutes.
If Milwaukee role players knock down a couple of threes Saturday, the Bucks and Giannis will trample the Hawks.
NBA Best Bet #1: Bucks -5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -6
The Milwaukee Bucks odds vs. the Atlanta Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, October 29th at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Memphis Grizzlies (4-1) at Utah Jazz (4-2)
The Grizzlies roll into the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City to face the Jazz Saturday. Memphis might be without All-Star PG Ja Morant who’s dealing with a non-COVID illness. But, if Ja misses, we’ll get a better price for the Grizzlies vs. an overrated Jazz squad.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
ML: Grizzlies (-155), Jazz (+135) ATS: GRIZZLIES -3.5 (-110), Jazz +3.5 (-110) Total (O/U) — 226 — O: -110, U: -110
Memphis balls without Morant
The Grizzlies were 20-5 overall in games Ja missed last season. Also, Morant had a -3.5 adjusted on/off net rating in 2021-22, per CTG. As in, Memphis scores 3.5 more points per 100 possession when Ja is off the floor.
Obviously, no Morant significantly lowers the Grizzlies’ long-term ceiling but Memphis’ role players can step up in this spot.
Memphis Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane high-fives Dillon Brooks in their first-round playoff game against the Minnesota Timberwolves last season. (Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane is playing at an All-Star level. We could see a slump-busting game from Memphis F Dillon Brooks because the Jazz have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA.
Grizzlies’ edge on the boards
Memphis has the best adjusted offensive rebounding rate in the NBA, per CTG, and scores the 10th-most paint PPG. Utah has the 2nd-worst adjusted defensive rebounding rate and allows the 3rd-most paint PPG.
The Grizzlies have consistently controlled the glass since the beginning of last season after acquiring C Steven Adams. The Jazz’s rebounding and interior presence will significantly decline this season due to trading big Rudy Gobert in the offseason.
Memphis can get extra looks against this weak Utah defense by crashing the glass. The Grizzlies will use those extra possessions to cover the spread vs. the Jazz.
NBA Best Bet #2: Grizzlies -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -5
The Memphis Grizzlies odds vs. the Utah Jazz at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, October 29th at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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Betting,Atlanta Hawks,Giannis Antetokounmpo,JA Morant,Memphis Grizzlies,Milwaukee Bucks,NBA best bets,NBA gambling,Trae Young,Utah Jazz
