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Two NBA Best Bets for Monday, Oct. 31 – OutKick – OutKick
Don’t be scared away from betting on NBA games this Halloween. I’m sure most of your betting bankroll is invested in Monday Night Football or the 2022 World Series but I have two NBA best bets.
Below, I’ll make cases for the Sacramento Kings covering against the Charlotte Hornets as road favorites and the Toronto Raptors taking care of business at home vs. the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta Hawks (4-2) at Toronto Raptors (3-3)
The Hawks lost to the Bucks in Milwaukee 123-115 Saturday and failed to cover as 5.5-point road underdogs even though Atlanta was inside the number for most of the 4th quarter.
Toronto got pummeled by a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers 112-90 Friday as 3.5-point home favorites after beating the Sixers by double digits two nights prior.
The Raptors were 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Hawks last season.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Moneyline (ML): Hawks (+130), Raptors (-150)ATS: Hawks +3 (-110), RAPTORS -3 (-110) Total (O/U) — 222.5 — O: -110, U: -110
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It’s a ‘better spot’ for the Raptors
Toronto is 4-1 ATS vs. the Hawks at home since 2019 with a +3.2 ATS margin. The Raptors are 8-3 ATS as regular-season home favorites of -4 or less since the start of last season.
Since 2020, the Hawks are 12-30 ATS as road underdogs with a -2.4 ATS margin. Atlanta is on a 9-game losing skid as road ‘dogs both SU and ATS.
Toronto Raptors’ Scottie Barnes, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam celebrate a successful possession against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images)
Toronto is profitable on extended rest (the Raptors are 10-5 ATS with 2-3 days of rest since 2021). Atlanta struggles with a rest disadvantage (9-14 ATS with a -3.1 ATS margin over that span).
Toronto is the ‘sharp’ side
According to VSIN, more money is on the Raptors at DraftKings Sportsbook whereas more bets have been placed on the Hawks.
It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because the cash column is considered the sharper side of the betting market.
Per Pregame.com, Atlanta opened as a 4-point favorite and has been lowered down to the current number despite getting a majority of the betting love. This is a red flag because typically oddsmakers adjust spreads according to their liability.
Raptors All-Star Pascal Siakam is the best player on the floor
Toronto playing Siakam at center will strain Atlanta’s defense because Siakam is a ball-handling big. Hawks big Clint Capela having to defend Siakam on the perimeter will hurt Atlanta’s interior defense and rebounding.
Toronto Raptors Pascal Siakam drives to the hoop against Atlanta Hawks C Clint Capela at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Hawks are 2-8 SU vs. the Raptors in games both Atlanta All-Star Trae Young and Siakam have played in. Siakam is scoring 23.7 points per game (PPG) on 52.1% field goal shooting.
Last season, Siakam averaged 25.8 points on 60.8% true shooting (.528/.500/.759) with 9.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and a +9 net rating (nRTG) in four games against the Hawks.
NBA Best Bet #1: Raptors -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
The Toronto Raptors’ odds vs. the Atlanta Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, October 31st at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Sacramento Kings (1-4) at Charlotte Hornets (3-3)
The Kings snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 119-113 upset home win vs. the Miami Heat this past weekend (3-2 ATS in their last five games).
Charlotte bounced back from two straight losses to upset the Golden State Warriors 120-113 in overtime at home Saturday.
These teams split last season’s series 1-1 SU and ATS. However, the Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Hornets and 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to Charlotte.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
ML: Hawks (+130), Raptors (-150)ATS: Hawks +3 (-110), RAPTORS -3 (-110) Total (O/U) — 222.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Follow the money headed toward Sactown
The Kings have gone from a 1-point underdog on the opener up to a 3-point favorite currently. This has to be sharp action because the public is backing Sacramento on a Monday in late October.
According to both VSIN and Pregame.com, more cash is on the Kings while more bets have been placed on the Hornets. Most likely due to their win-loss records.
But, Sactown was an underdog in three of its four losses and was mispriced as a favorite opening night when hosting a fully healthy Portland Trail Blazers.
Furthermore, Charlotte’s cluster injuries to its guards are concerning.
Kings have a massive edge in the backcourt
The Hornets are still without All-Star PG LaMelo Ball and combo guards Terry Rozier and Cody Martin are listed on their injury report as “doubtful”.
Sactown has a plethora of gifted ball-handlers that should have their way vs. Charlotte’s bad defense. Kings PG De’Aaron Fox is off to a career-best start. Fox is averaging career highs in PPG (27.8) and true shooting (63.4%).
Sacramento Kings PG De’Aaron Fox dribbles the ball up court against the Los Angeles Clippers at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Fox torched the Hornets last season. He scored 26.0 PPG on 65.9% true shooting (.563/.143/.882) with a +32 nRTG in two games vs. Charlotte in 2021-22.
Also, per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Kings are scoring 18.3 more points per 100 possessions when Fox is on the floor, which is in the 87th percentile for point and combo guards.
NBA Best Bet #2: Kings -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
The Sacramento Kings’ odds at the Charlotte Hornets from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, October 31st at 1 p.m. ET.
FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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