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Three NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, Oct. 26 – OutKick – OutKick
Let’s hope for a bounce-back effort in Wednesday’s October 26th NBA slate because the Association has been tough sledding thus far. Stick around for NBA best bets on sides, player props, totals, etc.
The big matchups are a head-to-head between Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo and a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets.
However, our three NBA plays for Wednesday include the Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves’ spreads and player prop for Toronto Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr.
Miami Heat (1-3) at Portland Trail Blazers (4-0)
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Moneyline (ML): Heat (-140), Trail Blazers (+120)Against the spread (ATS): HEAT -2.5 (-110), Trail Blazers +2.5 (-110)Total (O/U) — 228.5 — OVER: -110, U: -110
Follow the money flowing toward Miami
Nearly three-fourths of the money is on the Heat whereas more than 60% of the bets placed are on the Trail Blazers, per Pregame.com.
This indicates Miami is the sharp side because the cash column of the betting splits represents professional money and the tickets column represents the public.
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Miami Heat S Jimmy Butler daps up SG Duncan Robinson after he hit a 3-point shot vs. the Toronto Raptors at FTX Arena in Miami. (Eric Espada/Getty Images)
The Pros vs. Joe’s action in Heat-Trail Blazers makes sense since the public is backing Portland who is 4-0 ATS and fading an 0-4 ATS Miami team.
Also, the sharpest Oddsmaker — Pinnacle Sportsbook (Pinny) — lists Miami’s spread as the pricier of the two. Pinny is considered one of the sharpest shops in town because it books the largest sports bets in the world.
Based on the reaction to the market, it seems like the oddsmakers are trying to bait bettors into staking more on the Trail Blazers.
Portland is due for regression at the foul line
The Trail Blazers are 1st in offensive free-throw rate and 2nd in defensive free-throw rate this season. If the officiating skews in the Heat’s favor Wednesday, Portland could be without one of the advantages that’s led to its 4-0 overall and ATS record.
The Heat are great behind the arc
Miami had the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA last season and the 2nd-best defensive 3-point percentage. Portland lives and dies with the 3-pointer so if these teams get into a 3-point shootout, odds are the Heat will prevail.
Miami’s defense matches up well with Portland’s offense
The Trail Blazers run the 6th-highest rate of pick-and-roll action (PnR) through the ball handler and the Heat had a top-10 PnR defense vs. ball handlers last year. Miami allows the 2nd-fewest paint points per game (PPG) and allowed the fewest last season.
The Trail Blazers are top-heavy
Portland is scoring the 5th-fewest bench PPG this season and scored the 6th-fewest last year. If Miami can bottle up Trail Blazers guards Damian Lillard and Anferenee Simons, I don’t know who steps up for Portland.
On the other hand, the Heat scored the most bench PPG in 2021-22 and Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the NBA at getting the most out of his rosters.
NBA Best Bet #1: Heat -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to -3
The Miami Heat’s odds vs. the Portland Trail Blazers at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, October 26th at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. 2.5 made 3-pointers
Betting Details (DraftKings)
The Philadelphia 76ers head north of the border for a rematch of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series with the Toronto Raptors.
There’s a bunch of star power in 76ers-Raptors, which could open up some looks for role players such as Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr.
Toronto Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. shoots a 3-pointer against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena in Miami. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
Trent is 5th in 3-point attempts per game (9.8), making 3.8 threes per game (38.5%), and is averaging 3.5 more 3-point attempts this season compared to his career average.
He’s gone Over this number in three of four games this season and five of six regular-season meetings with Philly SG Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers. Maxey usually defends Trent for 76ers-Raptors games.
Finally, Philly’s defense likes to pack the paint (5th in paint PPG allowed) but allows opponents to chuck threes. The Sixers are the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game (39.8).
NBA Best Bet #2: Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-135)
Toronto Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr.’s odds for 3-pointers made when the Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers Wednesday at the Scotiabank Arena.
San Antonio Spurs (3-1) at Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2)
Betting Details (DraftKings)
ML: Spurs (+320), Timberwolves (-390)ATS: Spurs +9 (-105), TIMBERWOLVES -9 (-115)Total (O/U) — 235 — OVER: -110, U: -110
Public ‘dogs get slaughtered
The market is already turning on the T-Wolves after a 1-3 ATS start to their season. Also, the Spurs are surprising people through the first week because they were expected to be a “tank team” and have a winning record.
But, per VSIN, nearly 60% of the money is on Minnesota at DraftKings whereas the same rate of bets has been placed on San Antonio. This tells us that the public is swayed by the Spurs’ hot start and the sharps are betting the T-Wolves handle business Wednesday.
‘Zig-Zag Theory’
It’s tough beating the same team twice in back-to-back games in the NBA. A simple, but profitable, handicapping angle used in the NBA is betting the team that just lost in a rematch vs. the team that beat them aka the Zig-Zag Theory.
The Spurs upset the T-Wolves 115-106 in Minnesota Monday as 8.5-point underdogs. However, the T-Wolves found their groove at the end of that game and the Spurs will be without their 2nd-leading scorer.
Minnesota Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns cramming on San Antonio Spurs big Jakob Poeltl at the Target Center in Minneapolis. (Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)
Minnesota outscored San Antonio 35-12 in the 4th quarter and Spurs wing Devin Vassell is listed as “out”. Vassell led San Antonio in points vs. Minnesota Monday (23) and is averaging 19.8 PPG.
Lastly, the Spurs out-hustled the T-Wolves earlier this week, which led to San Antonio creating more turnovers and grabbing more rebounds.
Those are fixable mistakes though and I expect Minnesota to have a better effort to even the season series with San Antonio.
NBA Best Bet #3: Minnesota Timberwolves -9 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -10
The Minnesota Timberwolves odds at DraftKing Sportsbook vs. the San Antonio Spurs as of Wednesday, October 26th at 1 p.m. ET.
FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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