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Si Woo Kim, Sam Burns Among Golfers Atop The 2023 American Express Open Bet Slip – Mobile Betting Online – Mobile Betting Online
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The 2023 American Express down within the Coachella Valley, California is a nightmare to handicap. The AmEx is a Pro-Am occasion that performs in a 3-course rota and cuts all the way down to the top-70 golfers after 54 holes.
Those programs are the Pete Dye’s Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course). The Stadium Course will get a second play for the ultimate spherical, Sunday.
Adding to the randomness, after years of a mediocre to subpar AmEx discipline, 10 of the world’s top-20 golfers are within the discipline. Notables embody world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 4 Jon Rahm and No. 5 Patrick Cantlay.
I undoubtedly buried the lede however I cashed my third outright final week when Si Woo Kim gained the 2023 Sony Open at +4500. Kim additionally cashed top-5, -10 and -20 tickets and Andrew Putnam‘s T4 earned some moola too.
My 2022-23 PGA Tour steadiness climbed to +18.98 items (u) after 11 occasions handicapped. The recap of my Sony Open bets are on the backside of this submit.
I’ve opted to go together with a heavier on outrights and picks to position and forgo head-to-head matchups for my American Express card due to how the randomness of this occasion. Also, my head-to-heads suck this season.
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Before we get into the American Express wager slip, we’ll go over course circumstances and key efficiency indicators (KPIs) factored into my picks.
Course breakdown and KPIs for the American Express
There isn’t shotlink knowledge for La Quinta and the Nicklaus course so it’s onerous to search out comp programs. All three programs are Par 72 and fewer than 7,200 yards with 4 Par 3s, 4 Par 5s and 10 Par 4s.
Ten of the final 13 American Express winners had odds of +5500 or larger coming into the occasion. This is my excuse so as to add a few longshots to my card and avoid the favorites.
Since the American Express is a Pro-Am occasion, the programs don’t present a lot protection and the AmEx’s are usually birdie fests. The common successful rating on the final 5 AmEx’s is 24-beneath.
Stroked Gained (SG) for programs 7,200 yards or shorter and SG at programs with simple scoring circumstances are included in my AmEx energy rankings. Along with whole SG and SG: Putting during the last 24 rounds.
KPIs pulled
SG: Approach (APP) Birdies-or-Better (BoB) gained SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) Good Drives gained SG: Par 5 Par 5 Efficiency (EFF): 550-600 SG: Ball-striking (BS)SG: Par 4
The American Express ‘Horses for the course’
All stats are supplied by FantasyNational.com except famous.
Si Woo Kim
This logic burned me when backing Russell Henley after his win at Mayakoba earlier this season. Yet am I actually going to move on Si Woo Kim as a result of he gained final week? This discipline is stacked however that doesn’t sit nicely with me.
Si Woo Kim’s greatest weak point is with the flat-stick nonetheless he’s been on fireplace together with his irons these days. He is gaining +5.4 strokes tee-to-inexperienced (T2G) and +4.4 SG: APP over his final 5 occasions.
Si Woo Kim traces up a putt on the 18th inexperienced throughout the last spherical of the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
The American Express is often a placing contest. Here’s the factor: Kim gained this occasion in 2019, completed eleventh final 12 months and ninth in 2016. He has decide up strokes on the greens in all 4 of his AmEx’s performed.
Also, Kim is third in whole SG during the last 50 rounds on simple programs 7,200 yards or shorter, first in SG: T2G, tenth in SG: APP, and second in each SG: BS and SG: OTT.
The Sony Open broadcast made a strong level about Kim whereas overlaying his last spherical cost to win the occasion this previous Sunday. They mentioned the expertise and confidence Kim gained at September’s President’s Cup.
Si Woo Kim is barely 27 years previous and isn’t mentioned practically as a lot as fellow Koreans Sungjae Im and Tom Kim. He’s a 4-time winner on tour together with the celebrated 2017 PLAYERS Championship.
Kim is eighth within the FedEx Cup standings so far. Si Woo is clearly motivated by the rise of Tom Kim and consistency of Sungjae Im and he must be talked about amongst “best Koreans on Tour”.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and wager the next Si Woo Kim odds:
Win: (0.25u: +4000)Top-5: (0.25u: +800)Top-10: (0.5u: +360)Top-20: (0.5u: +165)
Tom Kim
To be trustworthy, I’ve FOMO on the Tom Kim hype-practice and excited to lastly get him at a good value. Kim missed the minimize finally week’s Sony Open as a result of he misplaced practically seven strokes on the greens.
It’s simpler to place on the American Express because it’s a Pro-Am occasion and the greens are simpler. Kim does have expertise on this occasion albeit he missed the minimize in his solely AmEx look in 2021.
He is +5.9 SG: T2G and +4.1 SG: APP during the last 5 occasions. Tom Kim gained his final two occasions he gained strokes with the putter at: 2022 Wyndham Championship and 2022 Shriners Children’s Open.
Tom Kim reacts to his strategy shot on the 4th gap throughout the 1st spherical of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club in Lahaina, Hawaii. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Tom Kim is sixth on my KPI-mannequin during the last 50 rounds. This consists of fourth in SG: APP, sixteenth in SG: Par 5, fifth in SG: BS, thirteenth in BoB gained, and eighth in SG: Par 4.
Finally, Tom Kim ranks fifth on this discipline for whole SG over his final 24 rounds and has the most important hole between SG at simple programs vs. SG at non-simple programs, per Ron Klos from BetSperts.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and wager the next Tom Kim odds:
Win: (0.5u: +2200)Top-5: (0.5u: +450)Top-10: (0.5u: +220)
Sam Burns
This is a value-play as a result of Burns doesn’t actually pop on my KPI-mannequin nor sit excessive in my AmEx energy rankings. He is 53rd on this discipline for SG during the last 24 rounds.
However, Burns is thirteenth within the Official World Golf Rankings and he’s priced the identical as Taylor Montgomery, Tom Hoge and Brian Harman, all at +3500.
Sam Burns performs his shot from the 4th tee throughout the first spherical of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club in Lahaina, Hawaii. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Burns gained two occasions final season: 2022 Valspar Championship and 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. He is third on this discipline for SG in simple scoring circumstances and among the finest putters on the PGA Tour.
Also, Burns completed missed the minimize on the 2021 AmEx however completed sixth in 2020 and 18th in 2019. He didn’t lose strokes placing at any of these occasions and is +4.1 SG: Putting over his final 5 tourneys.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and wager the next Sam Burns odds:
Win: (0.25u: +3500)Top-5: (0.25u: +750)Top-10: (0.25u: +360)Top-20: (0.75u: +190)
Thomas Detry
Detry doesn’t pop on my mannequin largely as a result of there isn’t shotlink knowledge for current occasions he has performed nicely. Detry performs on the DP World Tour and has three top-15s in his final 5 occasions on that tour.
He has completed fifteenth or higher in 5 of his final seven PGA occasions relationship again to final season. These embody a fifteenth at Mayakoba in November, second on the Bermuda in October and tenth within the Scottish Open in July.
Thomas Detry tees off on the 14th gap on Day Three of the Hero Cup at Abu Dhabi Golf Club in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)
Detry ranks twentieth or higher for this discipline in SG: Putting and whole SG during the last 24 rounds, SG at programs with simple scoring circumstances and SG at programs 7,200 yards or much less. He is twenty first on this discipline for BoB gained and eighth in SG: Par 4.
Perhaps Detry’s sky-excessive odds are because of him not taking part in a bunch of occasions just lately. Otherwise, he’s second within the 2022-23 PGA Tour rookie rankings behind Taylor Montgomery who’s tied with the tenth-greatest odds to win the AmEx.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and wager the next Thomas Detry odds:
Win: (0.125u: +13000)Top-5: (0.125u: +2200)Top-10: (0.25u: +900)Top-20: (0.5u: +360)
Ben Griffin
Griffin is third within the PGA Tour’s present rookie rankings but is all the way in which down the chances board with Detry. He’s 18th on my KPI-mannequin, rating seventeenth or higher in SG: APP, SG: Par 4, and BoB gained.
Ben Griffin watches his putt on the seventeenth inexperienced at Sea Island Resort Seaside Course in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Griffin is twelfth in my American Express energy rankings and seventeenth in whole SG during the last 24 rounds. He is +3.5 SG: T2G and +2.8 SG: APP during the last 5 occasions and doesn’t embody a third-place within the Bermuda, which doesn’t have shotlink knowledge.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and wager the next Ben Griffin odds:
Win: (0.125u: +13000)Top-10: (0.125u: +1000)Top-20: (0.5u: +360)
The American Express Final Bet Slip
Si Woo Kim: Win, top-5, top-10 & top-20 (1.5u) Tom Kim: Win, top-5 & top-10 (1.5u) Sam Burns: Win, top-5, top-10 & top-20 (1.5u) Thomas Detry: Win, top-5, top-10 & top-20 (1u)
2023 Sony Open (+14.9u)
Win & Picks To Place
Si Woo Kim (): Win, top-5, top-10 & top-20 (+15.5u)Andrew Putnam (added by way of Twitter, tied for fourth): Top-5, top-10 & top-20 (+4.6u)Corey Conners (tied for twelfth): Win, top-5 & top-10 (-1.5u) Russell Henley (tied for thirty second): Win, top-5 & top-10 (-1.5u)
Head-To-Heads
Keegan Bradley > Maverick McNealy (-1.1u) Sungjae Im > Tom Kim (-1.1u)
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