Ravens Stop Bills From Circling The Wagons Sunday – OutKick – uBetMobile.com

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Ravens Stop Bills From Circling The Wagons Sunday – OutKick – OutKick

, Ravens Stop Bills From Circling The Wagons Sunday – OutKick – uBetMobile.com

Week 4 NFL is stacked with amazing games. The co-main event will be played at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) host the Buffalo Bills (2-1).

Baltimore blew past the New England Patriots 37-26 Sunday, outscoring them 23-13 in the second half. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson put in cheat codes and scored five TDs vs. a helpless New England defense.

Not even a “butt punt” could save Buffalo from losing 21-19 at the Miami Dolphins in Week 3. The Bills lost to the Dolphins despite possessing the ball 20 minutes longer and outgaining them 497-212. Come to think about it, how did Buffalo lose to Miami Sunday?

Moneyline: Ravens (+135), Bills (-155)Against the spread (ATS): RAVENS +3 (-110), Bills -3 (-110) Total (O/U) — 51 — O: -110, U: -110

Lamar has money on his mind

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson celebrates after scoring a TD during the 4th quarter against the Patriots (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Jackson is pulling an Aaron Judge and betting himself while negotiating a contract extension. Like Judge, Lamar is ballin’ out.

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Granted, it’s still early but Jackson is second in QBR ahead of Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen. Lamar has the second-best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP (+550) at DraftKings, behind Allen.

Jackson is airing it out as well, averaging the second-most air yards per pass attempt. People said Baltimore’s passing attack would take a step back after trading former WR Marquise Brown this offseason.

But, Baltimore’s gamble that second-year WR Rashod Bateman would take a step forward has paid off. Partially because defenses aren’t paying enough respect to Lamar’s deep ball.

Also, Buffalo’s secondary has cluster injuries including shutdown CB Tre’Davious White and S Micah Hyde who will definitely miss Week 4. The Bills were without a couple of other defensive backs in Week 3, most notably Pro Bowl S Jordan Poyer.

The absence of Buffalo’s safeties may be too big for the Bills to overcome. Ravens TE Mark Andrews is the best player in his position thus far. Lamar-Andrews have a Brady-Gronk thing going right now.

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Essentially, Lamar has enough weapons to help him get paid this offseason.

Ravens-Bills is a ‘Pros vs. Joe’s’ game in the betting market

Per VSIN, more bets have been placed on the Bills ATS but nearly 60% of the cash at DraftKings Sportsbook is on the Ravens ATS at the time of publishing.

The cash column in the betting splits represents the sharp side since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than the public. Let’s follow the money flowing slightly towards Baltimore.

The Ravens have a sneaky good home-field advantage

M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Baltimore is 4-0 ATS as home underdogs since Lamar became the starter in 2019. The Ravens have a +9.6 ATS margin in those spots.

In fact, one of those ATS wins came against the Green Bay Packers last season when second-string QB Tyler Huntley started for an injured Lamar.

Possible rainy, windy conditions better suits Baltimore

Bills-Ravens could be a bad weather game. The weather forecast says there’s a 60% chance of rain and winds will blow 10+ mph.

Bad weather favors Baltimore in this spot because Buffalo has a one-dimensional offense. Buffalo has the worst schedule-adjusted (DVOA) rushing efficiency, according to Football Outsiders.

The Bills’ offensive line isn’t good enough to hold up against the Ravens in the trenches if the weather is a factor. Buffalo’s offensive line ranks 25th in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate and dead-last in run-blocking win rate.

We saw an advanced New England game-script ground Buffalo’s attack in a bad weather game in Week 13 last season. The Bills lost that game vs. the Patriots 14-10 at home. Baltimore should study New England’s strategy when scheming for Buffalo this Sunday.

Baltimore’s special teams are nasty

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh earned his coaching stripes as a special teams coordinator. This is part of the reason Baltimore’s special teams consistently grade high. The other part is Ravens PK Justin Tucker is the G.O.A.T.

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Per Football Outsiders, Baltimore ranks first in special teams DVOA, with a bullet. The Ravens’ +12.4% special teams DVOA is 7.2% higher than the next closest team.

Again, if the weather is a factor, give me the team with the better special teams. This is the cherry on Baltimore’s ATS handicap.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the BALTIMORE RAVENS +3 (-110) for 1 unit.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, Sept. 29 at 2:00 a.m. ET

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