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NFL Betting Picks From Analyst On 38-21 Run – Mobile Betting Online
It lastly occurred. Fifteen straight weeks of avoiding a shedding document, however regression lastly hit us. And when regression hits, it hits arduous. Our NFL betting picks went simply 1-4 in Week 16.
Nonetheless, as a result of we constructed up such a powerful early-season document, we’re at 64% successful for the 12 months. Not unhealthy in any respect.
Week 16 NFL Betting Picks (1-4)
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs Over 49 factors
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings Over 48 factors
Washington Commanders +7 over San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins -3.5 over Inexperienced Bay Packers
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Las Vegas Raiders +2 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 17 NFL Betting Picks
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 over New Orleans Saints
This line must be not less than a landing, minimal. I’m pleased to snag this underneath seven. The Eagles are an elite group in the NFL. They need to have crushed the Cowboys in Dallas final week with their backup quarterback. Jalen Hurts may return for this one, however even when he doesn’t the disparity between these two groups is immense.
The Eagles are at house and making an attempt to clinch the #1 seed in the NFC. You higher consider they need that spot and so they need to get it this week and never go away something to probability in Week 18. New Orleans is all however eradicated.
Right here’s why this line is mistaken: in case you have a look at comparable Week 17 matchups, the spreads are much increased.
Philadelphia is in the top tier in the NFL with regard to EPA/play, together with San Francisco, Kansas Metropolis and Buffalo.
They’re enjoying a group in the fourth tier — Principally the center of the NFL pack the place the bulk reside. San Francisco and Kansas Metropolis are each enjoying opponents from the identical tier as New Orleans. San Francisco — which has much less on the road than Philadelphia in terms of playoff implications — is a ten-level favourite ON THE ROAD towards Las Vegas.
Kansas Metropolis is a two-landing favourite at house towards the Denver Broncos. It doesn’t add up. I consider Philadelphia is just a little underrated due to the potential of Gardner Minshew enjoying and New Orleans is just a little overrated as a result of … effectively, fairly actually, I’m undecided why.
We’re backing the Philadelphia Eagles with one in every of our NFL betting picks whether or not they begin Gardner Minshew or Jalen Hurts. (Picture by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Photographs)
The Saints haven’t crushed a possible playoff group as soon as this season. They’ve gained two in a row, however they beat Cleveland and Atlanta. Previous to that, they misplaced 4 out of 5 and previous to beating the Browns final week hadn’t gained a street game since Week 1. The win in Cleveland was additionally the primary time this season the Saints gained a game performed outside. The Saints common simply 15 factors per game outside — and that’s buoyed by a 34-level game in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Exterior of that match, they haven’t scored more than 17 factors.
The Eagles aren’t shy about placing it on groups, both. They’ve gained seven games by a number of scores and solely 4 of their 13 wins have come by lower than a landing. And, by the best way, all of their wins by fewer than seven factors have come on the street. Of their six house victories, the typical margin is 14 factors. They’ve averaged 30 factors per game in seven house contests (6-1 document), and allowed opponents to attain simply 19 factors per contest at Lincoln Monetary Area.
In some way, the group with the perfect document in NFL is undervalued in Week 17, so we’ll fortunately aspect with them here.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Over 52 factors
I actually thought this was a sucker line when I first noticed it. “Everybody has to be hammering this Over!” I thought to myself. However then I went to VSIN to check the money percentages and it turns on the market are more bets on the UNDER than on the Over here (54% to 46%). However, after all, the money is on the Over (65%) as a result of that’s the clear appropriate aspect here.
To start with, these groups performed to a 31-30 games final time they met. They’re the 2 worst defenses in the league and Detroit simply allowed Carolina (!!) to attain 37 factors on over 300 yards speeding. Aside from a low-scoring affair with the Jets, the Lions have seen not less than 53 complete factors scored in every of their other previous 4 games. They even received to 49 factors towards the Giants, one of many heaviest Below groups in the league.
The Bears and Lions ran up the rating final time they met and we’re utilizing one in every of our NFL betting picks to say they do it once more. (Picture: Chicago Tribune by way of Getty Photographs)
There are 4 groups in the NFL tied for the best Over share in the league at 10-5 (O-U); these are two of them (the others are Minnesota and Philadelphia). Eight of the final 9 Bears games have gone over the overall since a 2-4 (O-U) begin in their first six. Detroit is 5-2 (O-U) in the final seven games. They’re additionally 6-2 to the Over at house this season.
Chicago has performed three games indoors this season: at Minnesota, Dallas, and Atlanta. All three of these games went over by a median of 15 factors per game. General on the street, Chicago is 5-2 to the Over by a median of +6 factors. These are the 2 worst groups in the NFL in terms of factors allowed to opponents and Detroit is Top 5 in factors scored. Chicago is not, however that has lots to do with a sluggish begin. In Justin Fields previous eight begins, the group has averaged 25 factors/game.
I was fairly shocked to find that persons are backing the Below here. The Over is such an apparent play.
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Talking of apparent performs, Baltimore giving up lower than a area purpose at house appears legal. Should you refer again to the EPA/play chart from earlier, the Ravens are a tier higher than the Steelers and so they’re at house. And whereas Baltimore has already clinched a playoff spot, a win this week towards Pittsburgh and subsequent week towards Cincinnati earns them the AFC North title and residential playoff game. That undoubtedly issues to them. Plus, they can get rid of the Steelers with a win this week.
I assume we’re getting just a little little bit of recency bias here for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett had a very nice game-successful drive final week towards the Raiders. However everybody has game-successful drives towards the Raiders. It aggravated me as a result of I bet the Raiders final week, however I’m not placing a ton of inventory in beating the Raiders in Pittsburgh whereas needing a final-second TD to do it.
These two groups performed in Pittsburgh just a few weeks in the past and Baltimore had Tyler Huntley beginning. The Ravens gained 16-14. Maybe that’s affecting this number, too. However this game can be performed in Baltimore. The Ravens haven’t misplaced at house since October 2nd and that was towards Buffalo. Actually, the Ravens began 0-2 at house and have gained 5 straight.
J.K. Dobbins ran everywhere in the Steelers final time they met, and we’re betting that he can do it once more. (Picture by Joe Sargent/Getty Photographs)
The Steelers have gained 5 of their previous seven, however misplaced each games they performed towards playoff groups (these Ravens and the Bengals). The entire wins got here towards groups underneath .500: Saints, Colts, Falcons, Panthers and Raiders. So that they beat up on the NFC South, plus the hapless Colts and Raiders who’ve each since benched their beginning quarterbacks from these games.
Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play, and I’m superb nonetheless laying the factors with Huntley. However Jackson may play, and if he does this line is going to shoot in the direction of to Ravens. In that case, we lock in an awesome worth at 2.5.
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