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Lay The Points With Florida State Saturday Vs. Wake Forest – OutKick – OutKick
The No. 22 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-1, 0-1 in ACC) head to Doak S. Campbell Stadium Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff with the No. 23 Florida State Seminoles (4-0, 2-0 in ACC).
Wake Forest narrowly lost to the Clemson Tigers at home 51-45 in overtime last week but covered as 8-point underdogs. Demon Deacons junior QB Sam Hitman lit up Clemson’s secondary, completing 69.0% of his passes (20-of-29) for 337 yards with a career-best six TDs and 0 INT.
Florida State blew out Boston College Eagles 44-14 at home Saturday, taking a 31-point lead into halftime and easily covering as 18-point favorites. The Seminoles have won three straight against the spread (ATS) since losing ATS in a 47-7 win over Duquesne as 42-point home favorites opening week.
The Demon Deacons have won and covered in both meetings with the Seminoles since Florida State head coach Mike Norvell took over the program in 2019.
Moneyline: Wake Forest (+190), Florida State (-225) ATS: Wake Forest +6.5 (-115), FLORIDA STATE -6.5 (-105)Total (O/U) — 67 — O: -110, U: -110
BET: Florida State -6.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Florida St. remains undefeated this year. (Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
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Pinnacle Sportsbook aka Pinny is the sharpest shop in the market because they book the largest bets. Florida State’s spread is 8% more expensive than Wake Forest’s, which indicates the Seminoles are the sharper side. There’s some value in fading the sticker shock of this betting line.
Meaning it’s weird seeing Wake Forest getting nearly a touchdown against Florida State after going to overtime with Clemson last week. Especially, since the Demon Deacons are ranked ahead of the Seminoles and Wake Forest clubbed Florida State 35-14 in 2021.
This is backed up by the betting splits. According to VSIN, roughly two-thirds of the action is on Wake Forest ATS at the time of publishing. The sportsbooks will be rooting for Florida State. As bettors, we always like being on the same side as the oddsmakers since the House usually wins.
However, Wake Forest covering vs. the Tigers had more to do with Clemson’s young and banged-up secondary. More importantly, Florida State is much more efficient. Both Florida State’s net expected points added per play (EPA/play) and net success rate is double Wake Forest’s.
Hartman is the higher-profile quarterback in this matchup and just balled up a traditionally stout Clemson defense. But, Florida State QB Jordan Travis is actually the more efficient quarterback. Travis has more EPA/play than Hartman and a better Pro Football Focus grade.
The total suggests this game is going to be a shootout, which makes it a little easier to lay 6.5 points in a conference game between two ranked opponents. If there’s going to be a lot of points scored then I’ll happily take the more balanced offense.
Not only is Travis an elite ACC quarterback but Florida State ranks 1st in the conference for rushing yards per game. Wake Forest however is one-dimensional.
The Demon Deacons are 11th in the ACC (out of 13 teams) in rushing yards per game. Florida State’s pass coverage is good enough to make it difficult to get Wake Forest off the field on 3rd-and-longs.
BET the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES -6.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 1 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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