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Dolphins ATS Vs. Packers Is An NFL Christmas Gambling Present – Mobile Betting Online – Mobile Betting Online
The Inexperienced Bay Packers (6-8) assembly the Miami Dolphins (8-6) Sunday in Week 16 on the Exhausting Rock Stadium is the one NFL Christmas game the place each groups have one thing to play for.
Regardless of a sub-.500 document, the Packers can nonetheless sneak into the NFC playoffs. The Dolphins seemed poised for an AFC East title run mid-approach by the season, however now want this game like blood.
After shedding seven of eight games from October 9 to November 27, Inexperienced Bay has gained again-to-again games albeit towards dangerous groups.
Inexperienced Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers reacts after a TD towards the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Discipline in Inexperienced Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Photographs)
Miami enters Week 16 on a 3-game shedding skid however went to the wire with the Buffalo Payments final week in a 32-29 loss.
To the general public, these groups seem to be heading in the wrong way. Nonetheless, their current outcomes are deceptive, the Packers are at a promote-high spot and the Dolphins are buying and selling at a market-low.
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Moneyline: Packers (+155), Dolphins (-180) In opposition to the unfold (ATS): Packers +3.5 (-110), DOLPHINS -3.5 (-110)Whole (O/U) — 50 — O: -110, U: -110
Low cost worth for the Dolphins
Home-area benefit in the NFL this yr is price anyplace between 1.5-2.5 factors. For the Packers-Dolphins, let’s say Miami’s residence-area edge is 1.5 factors.
I.e. the Dolphins are 2-level favorites over the Packers on a impartial area. Does that sound correct? I get that Miami has struggled in current weeks (more on that under). However, have we forgotten how mediocre Inexperienced Bay has been?
Miami Dolphins WRs Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill carry out a TD dance in the tip zone vs. the Detroit Lions at Ford Discipline in Detroit. (Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photographs)
From an effectivity standpoint, the Dolphins are leagues higher than the Packers. Miami is fifth in web anticipated factors added per play (EPA) and eighth in web yards per play (nYPP). Inexperienced Bay is sixteenth in web EPA/play and twentieth in nYPP.
Let’s simply be grateful bettors are overreacting to what they simply noticed and …
Fade the ‘recency bias’
Miami was -5.5 on the look-forward line final weekend. However, the Packers beat the terrible LA Rams 24-12 on Monday Night time Soccer in Week 15, and the Dolphins misplaced their third straight in a Dec. 17 island game.
This 2-level line motion to the Dolphins -3.5 is too much. Certain, Miami bought clobbered 33-17 by San Francisco in Week 13, misplaced as street favorites to the LA Chargers in Week 14, and bought beat in Buffalo Saturday.
San Francisco 49ers cross rusher Nick Bosa celebrates after sacking Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Photographs)
However, the Dolphins had been lacking their beginning offensive tackles vs. the very best protection in the NFL (the Niners). Chargers QB Justin Herbert is adequate to beat any workforce single-handedly and LA coach Brandon Staley had defensive game plan. The Payments are a Tremendous Bowl favourite.
The Packers on the other hand beat a canine-shit Rams workforce regardless of Rodgers taking part in poorly as a result of the Rams are horrible. The week prior Inexperienced Bay beat the three-11 Chicago Bears whom Rodgers owns.
This ‘recency bias’ for the Packers mixed with how nicely the Dolphins performed final week vs. the Payments makes this a …
Nice situational spot for Miami
To start with, the Dolphins have a relaxation and prep edge in this game. Inexperienced Bay performed on MNF in Week 15 (5 days) whereas Miami performed final Saturday (seven days).
Additionally, the AFC playoff race is getting comfortable and the Dolphins can’t afford a loss at residence down the stretch. So Miami’s motivation here is apparent.
However, what’s being missed is how nicely the Dolphins performed final week. Miami had a +0.8 nYPP final weekend towards Buffalo (7.1-6.3) in situations that clearly favored the Payments.
Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert runs the ball towards the Buffalo Payments at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Photographs)
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa threw TDs to each of his stud wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Miami bought the run game going as nicely. Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert gained 136 yards on 17 carries.
Miami ought to have the identical steadiness on offense in Week 16 vs. the Packers as a result of the …
Dolphins have an edge in the trenches
Per Professional Soccer Focus, Miami’s offensive line has a plus-EV matchup vs. Inexperienced Bay’s line of defense in each run blocking and cross safety.
On the other aspect of the ball, the Packers’ offensive line is at drawback towards the Dolphins’ line of defense in each run and cross blocking.
All 4 of Miami’s defensive linemen are above common per PFF. Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins and cross rusher Jaelan Phillips grade out in the top 10 of their positions.
Miami Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins celebrates after a sort out towards the Buffalo Payments at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Photographs)
Moreover, Miami added an elite cross rusher in Bradley Chubb on the commerce deadline. Whereas Inexperienced Bay misplaced an elite cross rusher, Rashan Gary, to a season-ending harm earlier this season.
In the end, the one professional-Packers case is “Aaron Rodgers as an underdog”. There’s little question that’s level however this ain’t the identical Inexperienced Bay as yesteryear.
BET: Dolphins -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, as much as -4
The Miami Dolphins’ odds vs. the Inexperienced Bay Packers from DraftKings Sportsbooks as of Saturday, December twenty fourth at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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