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Circa Million IV NFL Week 17 Picks – Mobile Betting Online – Mobile Betting Online
This is the penultimate week of the NFL common season and the Circa Million IV contest. However, the Invoice-Bengals Monday Night time Soccer bout is the one Week 17 game between two profitable groups.
Week 16 Recap (2-3):
Payments at BEARS (+8.5) BENGALS (-3) at Patriots Packers at DOLPHINS (-3.5) Raiders at STEELERS (-2.5) Texans at TITANS (-3.5)
My hunch continues after a 3rd consecutive shedding week, falling right into a tie for 1,one hundred and seventieth place of 4,683 Circa Million entries with a 41-35-4 file.
Listed below are the Circa Million IV strains for NFL Week 17 adopted by my picks …
Circa Million IV NFL Week 17 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most assured, and fifth is least.
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Steelers (+2.5)Dolphins (+3) Browns (+2.5) Saints (+5.5)Bears (+6)
Circa Decide #1: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The NFL rightfully flexed Steelers-Ravens as much as Sunday Night time Soccer contemplating all of the other crappy games scheduled Sunday. Payments-Bengals couldn’t be flexed up as a result of it’s a MNF game.
That mentioned, you all the time take the underdog in these AFC North slug matches. Since 2012, underdogs of +2.5 or more in this Steelers-Ravens sequence is 13-2-2 in opposition to the unfold (ATS).
Baltimore beat Pittsburgh 16-14 as 1.5-level highway underdogs in their first assembly this season earlier this month. Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett exited early with a concussion and backup QB Mitch Trubisky blew the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett in motion through the game in opposition to the New Orleans Saints at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Joe Sargent/Getty Pictures)
Pittsburgh transformed 5 more first downs and out-gained Baltimore 6.2-5.1 in yards per play (YPP). However, Trubisky three 3 INTs, all on Baltimore’s aspect the sphere and the Steelers went 0-for-4 in the red zone.
If we get this type of manufacturing out of Pittsburgh’s offense this time round, the Steelers +2.5 ought to be straightforward money. Pittsburgh’s protection is much higher with T.J. Watt on the sphere and Baltimore’s offense is atrocious with out Lamar Jackson.
Watt is a drive multiplier and types a Metal Curtain alongside Steelers LB Alex Highsmith and DT Cameron Hayward. The Ravens haven’t scored more than 17 factors per game since backup Tyler Huntley changed Lamar in Week 13.
(LISTEN to Steelers-Ravens evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Decide #2: Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at New England Patriots
Miami can clinch an AFC playoff berth with a victory. vs. New England and a New York Jets loss on the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. If the Patriots lose, their season is over.
My first, and essential, issue of this handicap is the road motion since news broke Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could be sidelined with a concussion.
The Dolphins opened as 2.5-level favorites and, publish-Tua news, Miami fell to so far as +3. Dolphins second-string QB Teddy Bridgewater is the most effective backups in the NFL and has expertise from the same state of affairs.
Miami Dolphins QB Teddy Bridgewater and coach Mike McDaniel focus on technique throughout game in opposition to Minnesota Vikings at Laborious Rock Stadium in Miami. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service through Getty Pictures)
Bridgewater went 5-0 in reduction responsibility for an injured Drew Brees whereas enjoying for the New Orleans Saints in 2019. Granted, Bridgewater hasn’t seemed nice when backing up Tagovailoa this season.
However, on the finish of the day, there isn’t 5 factors price of distinction between Bridgewater and Tua. Bridgewater has the arm energy and veteran savviness to make all of the throws Tagovailoa can make.
The Dolphins have been cruising vs. the Packers final week previous to Tua’s concussion. Inexperienced Bay ended up beating Miami 26-20 as a result of a concussed Tagovailoa threw 3 INTs.
if this play at 2:40 was Tua’s concussion, here are his stats:
pre-concussion: 9/12, 229 yds, 19.1 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT
publish-concussion: 7/13, 81 yds, 6.2 YPA, 0 TD, 3 INTs(*17*)pic.twitter.com/0FvirTtxnR
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 26, 2022
If Tua spoke up about his concussion earlier in the game, the Dolphins may’ve changed him with Bridgewater and nonetheless would’ve beat the Packers. Miami out-gained Inexperienced Bay 8.4-4.6 in YPP.
If you happen to requested New England coach Invoice Belichick if he’d choose Bridgewater or Patriots QB Mac Jones, Belichick is saying “gimme Teddy.” Jones is terrible and fading him has been considered one of my finest strikes in this season.
New England’s protection has six TDs and Jones has handed for 9 TDs. Jones has the second-worst QBR in the NFL. He has zero game-profitable drives and fourth-quarter comebacks. Miami’s protection dudes and this is the precise state of affairs a proficient protection steps up.
(LISTEN to Dolphins-Patriots evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Decide #3: Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Washington Commanders
There’s an expression in football handicapping that claims, “groups in a ‘should-win’ should not be that good.” Cleveland’s season is over and Washington is holding to the ultimate NFC wild-card seed for expensive life.
However, once more, if the Commanders have been that good, they wouldn’t be in this place. Washington’s motivational edge is already accounted for the number.
Home groups usually get a 2.5-to-3-level bump for residence area so the “Commanders -2.5” is the Home’s manner of claiming Washington is solely barely higher than Cleveland, if in any respect.
Commanders coach Ron Rivera going from QB Carson Wentz to QB Taylor Heinicke again to Wentz for Week 17 wreaks of desperation and confusion.
Additionally, Browns QB Deshaun Watson has struggled since being reinstated in Week 13. However, if persons are promoting Watson’s inventory as a quarterback (football-solely) then I’m shopping for. Particularly in this spot.
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson calls a play through the 2nd half in opposition to the New Orleans Saints at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Pictures through Getty Pictures)
The energy of Washington’s protection is the defensive position whereas Cleveland offsets that with the most effective offensive strains in the NFL.
Anybody evaluating Watson’s contract to Broncos QB Russell Wilson is doing so prematurely. Wilson has been a catastrophe and Watson is simply rusty. I’m actually betting that Watson turns it round this week or subsequent.
Lastly, there is more money on the Browns and more bets have been positioned on the Commanders in the consensus market, in accordance with Pregame.com.
Sometimes, the cash column is thought-about the sharp aspect of the betting splits as a result of professionals wager quite a bit more dough than your common Joe.
(LISTEN to Browns-Commanders evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Decide #4: New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Saints-Eagles opened up with Philadelphia as 7-level favorites however that has trickled down all week. Presumably, Eagles injured QB Jalen Hurts will miss his second straight game and backup QB Gardner Minshew will get one other begin.
This line motion towards New Orleans is nearly actually skilled money. Per VSIN, roughly 80% of the motion and cash at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Philly.
Minshew seemed fairly good final week vs. the Cowboys. But he did throw 2 INTs and had a number of shut calls. Going from Hurts to Minshew is positively a downgrade and I’d argue it’s higher than 1.5 factors.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts celebrates a TD with RT Lane Johnson in opposition to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Subject in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Pictures)
On top of that, the Saints have an above-common protection — twelfth in factors per play and seventh in YPP allowed — and the Eagles are lacking considered one of their finest players: RT Lane Johnson.
Philly is 3-10 total since 2020 in games Johnson has missed. Additionally, if it weren’t for dangerous turnover luck, NOLA would have a greater file. The Saints has a -12 turnover margin however ranks sixth in web YPP.
Lastly, New Orleans’ offense can have success Sunday. The Eagles have a banged-up secondary and the weak a part of Philadelphia’s protection is stopping the run. Philly is twenty fourth in yards per rush allowed.
(LISTEN to Saints-Eagles evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Decide #5: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Bears are the final group to make my Week 17 Circa Million IV card as a result of they burned me final week and vs. the Lions earlier this season.
Chicago bought crushed by Buffalo 35-13 at residence final week regardless of Payments QB Josh Allen throwing a few dangerous INTs. The Bears additionally misplaced to the Lions 31-30 in a game Chicago ought to’ve received.
Detroit tied Chicago 24-24 in the fourth quarter because of a horrible pick-six by Bears QB Justin Fields. Plus the Bears out-gained the Lions 7.0-5.5 in YPP. However, they have been 0-for-1 on fourth-down makes an attempt with 9 penalties for 86 yards.
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields runs for a TD through the 4th quarter in opposition to the Detroit Lions at Soldier Subject in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Pictures)
Additionally, I’m anticipating a bounce-again game from Fields. He gained simply 11 yards on seven carries final week vs. the Payments however Detroit’s protection is gentle years away from Buffalo’s.
Fields has a shot at breaking the file for many dashing yards by a quarterback in a season and he rushed for 147 yards on 13 carries with 2 TDs.
Once more, we’re fading the narrative of this being a “should-win” for the Lions. They’re in this spot as a result of they kinda suck too. Detroit is twenty fourth in web YPP and twenty fifth in web EPA/play.
Lastly, highway ‘canines in division games are 28-18-1 ATS in 2022.
(LISTEN to Bears-Lions evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
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