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Circa Million IV NFL Week 16 Picks – Mobile Betting Online – Mobile Betting Online
I was feeling good after final Saturday’s primetime game when the Dolphins coated as 7-level underdogs in Buffalo as my first NFL Week 15 pick in the Circa Million IV contest. However, the gambling gods introduced me again right down to earth.
Week 15 Recap (1-3-1):
Lions at JETS (pick ’em) DOLPHINS (+7) at Payments COWBOYS (-3.5) at Jaguars RAMS (+7) at Packers TITANS (+3) at Chargers
After again-to-again shedding weeks, my document fell to 39-32-4, which is tied for 1,111st out of 4,683 Circa Million entries. Listed here are the Circa Million IV strains for NFL Week 16 adopted by my picks …
Circa Million IV NFL Week 16 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most assured, and fifth is least.
Bears (+8.5)Bengals (-3) Dolphins (-3.5)Steelers (-2.5) Titans (-3.5)
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Circa Choose #1: Buffalo Payments at Chicago Bears (+8.5)
Payments-Bears was the second game I bet this week after hammering the Jacksonville Jaguars after they visited the New York Jets on Thursday Night time Soccer earlier this week.
I ought to’ve subbed my Circa picks early this week with the TNF included. I ended up wussing out due to all of the late supposed sharp money that got here on NYJ Thursday.
Ah properly, NFL Week 16 is a uncommon occasion when I truly like more than the 5 games wanted to finish our weekly contest submission.
Formally, Chicago is my favourite facet this weekend due to its floor-and-pound offense. The Bears common essentially the most speeding makes an attempt per game and yards per rush and have essentially the most damaged tackles.
Buffalo is the worst tackling crew in the NFL, in accordance with Professional Soccer Focus (PFF), and was tied with the Jaguars for essentially the most missed tackles in the league coming into this week.
This is a quintessential “sandwich spot” for the Payments. They confronted the Dolphins final week in a revenge game since Miami beat the Payments earlier this season. Buffalo visits the Bengals for Monday Night time Soccer subsequent week.
Lastly, in accordance with R.J. Bell’s Pregame.com Dream Preview NFL podcast, after their final 31 house games vs. the Dolphins, the Payments are 4-27 in opposition to the unfold (ATS).
(LISTEN to Payments-Bears evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Choose #2: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New England Patriots
Cincy has been masking machines because the center of final season, Over their final 22 games, the Bengals are 19-3 ATS. Additionally, New England beats who it’s alleged to and loses to good groups.
This season, the Patriots are 0-7 straight up (SU) and 1-6 ATS when opponents rating more than 20 factors. However, New England is 7-0 SU and ATS when holding opponents to lower than 20 factors.
Primarily, when the Patriots face good groups, they’re screwed. Listed here are the QBs New England has crushed this season:
Lions QB Jared GoffJets QB, and shortly-to-be backup, Zach Wilson (twice) Browns backup QB Jacoby BrissettSteelers backup QB Mitch TrubiskyColts now-third-string QB Sam Ehlinger Cardinals backup QB Colt McCoy
Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is worthy of the reward he will get week after week. However, this Bengals’ protection has some chew to it as properly. Cincy ought to be getting again cross rusher Trey Hendrickson and slot CB Mike Hilton for this game.
Extra importantly, Patriots QB Mac Jones has been horrible this season. Jones has the second-worst QBR in the NFL. He accomplished simply 13-of-31 passes final weekend vs. a Vegas cross protection that ranks final in opponent’s QB Score.
(LISTEN to Bengals-Patriots evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Choose #3: Inexperienced Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Packers-Dolphins is the primary of the NFL’s Christmas tripleheader and I’ll break this game down in additional element on Christmas Eve.
My elements for liking Miami here include Inexperienced Bay being overrated, the Dolphins returning house after three straight highway games, and Miami having an edge in the trenches.
Additionally, Inexperienced Bay and QB Aaron Rodgers will likely be standard underdogs and public canines get slaughtered in sports betting.
(LISTEN to Packers-Dolphins evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Choose #4: Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Initially, this is a Professionals vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. Per VSIN, a slight majority of the bets positioned at DraftKings Sportsbook are on the Raiders however more than 70% of the cash is on the Steelers.
Usually, it’s sensible to comply with the money when it’s counter to the general public in these conditions as a result of skilled bettors put up quite a bit more dough than you or I.
Moreover, there’s a good likelihood the general public is overreacting to Vegas’s nonsense win final week over New England and the Steelers are flying below the radar.
The truth is, three of the Raiders’ final 4 wins had been flukey and Vegas has been a favourite in 10 of 14 games this season regardless of having a 6-8 SU document.
Since T.J. Watt returned to motion in Week 10, Pittsburgh is sixth in defensive success rate. Watt is a pressure multiplier for the Steelers and the remainder of their line of defense will get much higher matchups when he’s on the sector.
Pittsburgh Steelers cross rusher T.J. Watt reacts after a play in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Justin K. Aller/Getty Photographs)
Additionally, there’s at the very least a half-level value of worth in Pittsburgh at -2.5. Raiders QB Derek Carr struggles in winter situations and the Steelers’ crowd is going to be raucous given the circumstances.
The Steelers are retiring Corridor of Fame RB Franco Harris’s jersey at half-time. December twenty third is the fiftieth anniversary of Harris’s Immaculate Reception, which is one of the vital well-known performs in NFL historical past.
FRANCO HARRIS MADE RADIO APPEARANCE JUST HOURS BEFORE HIS DEATH
STEELERS’ LEGEND FRANCO HARRIS PASSES AWAY JUST DAYS BEFORE 50TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE IMMACULATE RECEPTION
Harris tragically died earlier this week. If there was ever a coach that might amp a roster full of children who’ve by no means seen Harris play, it’s Mike Tomlin. For those who don’t purchase into that motivational stuff, we’re nonetheless getting the Steelers at an affordable value.
Pittsburgh is seventeenth in opponent-adjusted crew effectivity (DVOA), per Soccer Outsiders, and Vegas is twenty sixth. The Steelers are +12 in first-down differential and the Raiders are -13.
(LISTEN to Raiders-Steelers evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Choose #5: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
The Titans are my final choice for Circa in Week 16 due to their scrolling damage report. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill is out with an damage and rookie QB Malik Willis fills in.
However, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is top-of-the-line in the NFL and this line is off. The Texans are clearly the worst crew in the NFL and this unfold is saying the Titans aren’t far forward of them.
That simply can’t be true. There are 4 NFL groups on their third-string QB. And even with out a ton of starters, Tennessee nonetheless has a large power-on-weak spot edge over Houston on the bottom.
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry runs the ball as he will get a block in opposition to the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Bob Levey/Getty Photographs)
The Texans have a backside-5 rush protection and Titans RB Derrick Henry owns them. In his final 4 games vs. Houston, Henry is averaging 223.0 speeding yards and has scored 9 speeding TDs.
On top of that, one among Willis’ two begins this season was in opposition to the Texans. The Titans gained that game 17-13 in Houston and coated as 3.5-level favorites.
Lastly, this is a purchase-low spot for the Titans and a promote-high spot for the Texans. Tennessee has misplaced 4 straight and Houston simply misplaced two nail-biters with the Cowboys and Chiefs.
(LISTEN to Texans-Titans evaluation on this week’s Mobile Betting Online Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Take heed to the ‘Mobile Betting Online Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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