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Bills Will Stomp Bengals In AFC Divisional Round Sunday – Mobile Betting Online – Mobile Betting Online
I’m harkening again to my preseason priors for this Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills AFC Divisional Round matchup Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.
It wasn’t a scorching take however the Bills have been my decide to win the Super Bowl. I’m iffy on that now as a result of there have been velocity bumps alongside the best way principally on account of turnovers.
Bills QB Josh Allen‘s turnover woes practically value them final week. Buffalo squeaked previous the Miami Dolphins 34-31 within the AFC Wild Card spherical.
The Bengals had a scare of their very own, beating the Baltimore Ravens 24-17 final week in a game a lot nearer than the ultimate rating suggests.
Baltimore Ravens QB Tyler Huntley fumbles the ball that is recovered by Cincinnati Bengals DE Sam Hubbard to attain a 98-yard TD within the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
However, I’ll lay the factors with Buffalo here for quite a lot of causes. First, many of the market is betting on the Bengals, in keeping with VSIN, and public ‘canines will get slaughtered by the sportsbooks.
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Also, NFL speaking heads are saying Cincinnati seemed like the higher staff once they met within the Week 17 game cancelled after the Damar Hamlin incident.
That needs to be the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard. Bengals-Bills half I used to be stopped after 9 minutes of game time. Sure, Cincinnati was forward 7-3 however who cares?
There are loopy comebacks in football on a regular basis. Using 9 minutes of game time from the abbreviated Bengals-Bills Week 17 game is lazy and silly.
Moneyline: Bengals (+220), Bills (-260)Against the unfold (ATS): Bengals +5.5 (-110), BILLS -5.5 (-110)Total — 48.5 — Over: -110, Under: -110
The Bills win within the trenches
The Bengals have cluster accidents on their offensive line. Bengals LT Jonah Williams and RG Alex Cappa are uncertain for Sunday and RT La’el Collins is on IR.
Cincy’s offensive line improved this season however Joe Burrow was sacked an NFL-high 70 occasions within the common season and playoffs mixed in 2021. The Titans sacked Burrow 9 occasions within the 2022 AFC Divisional spherical.
Ravens OLB Odafe Oweh sacks Bengals QB Joe Burrow within the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Buffalo OLB Von Miller is on IR as nicely and that hurts their go rush. But, Buffalo coach Sean McDermott and DC Leslie Frazier are defensive masterminds.
The Bills schemed up stress simply effective in latest seasons with out massive-title go rushers. They ought to have a subject day in opposition to this Bengals offensive line lacking three starters.
Furthermore, the Bills rank greater in three of ESPN’s 4 “metrics to measure performance in the trenches” corresponding to go rush, run stopping, and go blocking win charges.
Fading ‘recency bias’
Based on all of the NFL Wild Card spherical recap I’ve consumed, it feels just like the media is more vital of Buffalo’s efficiency than Cincinnati’s. Both groups performed in opposition to backup quarterbacks.
Also, I’d argue the ultimate scores of each the Bills’ and Bengals’ wild card games are deceptive. Meaning Buffalo manhandled Miami on the field rating whereas Cincy received out-performed within the stats by Baltimore.
The Bills jumped out to a 17-0 lead, out-gained the Dolphins 5.9-3.3 in yards per play and transformed 9 more first downs (25-16). Miami scored 17 factors off three Bills turnovers together with a defensive TD.
The Bengals received previous the Ravens final week due to a Sam Hubbard 98-yard fumble return TD when Baltimore QB Tyler Huntley tried extending the ball over the aim line for a go-forward TD.
Baltimore out-gained Cincinnati 5.5-4.3 in yards per play and the Ravens transformed 9 more first downs than the Bengals (25-16).
The backside line is in case you take away the rating, the Bills have been for more environment friendly final week than the Bengals. And that’s true for all the season too.
Buffalo is higher by the numbers
The quarterback battle is a stalemate. Burrow appears to have more of the It issue whereas Allen is an all-world athlete with a cannon connected to his shoulder.
Football Outsiders ranks the Bills second in opponent-adjusted offensive effectivity (DVOA) and first in each defensive DVOA and particular groups DVOA.
Bills QB Josh Allen celebrates with WR Stefon Diggs after a Diggs’ TD vs. the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Buffalo has a +1.1 in web yards per play and Cincy is even. The Bills have a +1.44 web factors per play (nPPP) and the Bengals are +0.80 in nYPP. Buffalo has higher web third-down and crimson zone conversion charges.
These edges alone might support the Bills laying -6.5 on this matchup. Buffalo have been 2.5-level favorites over Cincinnati on the opener for his or her Week 17 assembly.
If we do the 5-level flip rule for dwelling-subject benefit, which may very well be as a high as six factors, then the Bills might simply TD favorites here. As loopy because it sounds, Buffalo ATS on the present value is nonetheless an excellent deal.
BET: Bills -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, as much as -6
The Buffalo Bills’ odds vs. the Cincinnati Bengals from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Jan. twentieth at 2 a.m. ET.
PS Player Prop: Bills WR Gabriel Davis anytime landing (+150)
This is more of a intestine-feeling wager on a “good number” so really feel free to go. And I positively advocate going lighter on this wager in case you make it than the Bills ATS.
That stated, Cincinnati’s outdoors cornerbacks are subpar and Davis is going to get an excellent matchup. Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Bengals CB Eli Apple 109th out 120 charted CBs.
Their other beginning outdoors CB, rookie Cam Taylor-Britt, grades out 93rd by PFF. Cincy slot CB Mike Hilton ranks nineteenth by PFF but when he’s relocated it’ll more than likely be to help with Stefon Diggs.
Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis scores a 19-yard TD vs. the Chiefs within the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
Davis has seven receiving TDs this season and has scored a TD in three straight playoff games. He caught 4 TD passes vs. the Chiefs in final 12 months’s AFC Divisional spherical.
The Bengals have a lot to deal with defensively that possibly Davis slips by the cracks. Cincy wants to fret about Allen scrambling, Diggs tearing aside the secondary, and Bills TE Dawson Knox has been on a heater.
BET: Bills WR Gabriel Davis anytime landing (+150) at DraftKings
Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis anytime TD scorer from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Jan. twentieth at 2:30 a.m. ET.
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