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Alamo Bowl Between Texas-Washington Will Be A Rock-Combat – Mobile Betting Online – Mobile Betting Online
The headline is slang for a low-scoring game. That’s what I’m anticipating in the Alamo Bowl when the No. 21 Texas Longhorns (8-4) meet the No. 12 Washington Huskies (10-2) Thursday on the Alamodome.
Texas began the season 2-2 earlier than rallying for a 6-2 end to make a bowl game in coach Steve Sarkisian’s second season in Austin. The Longhorns are 8-4 towards the unfold (ATS) and 6-6 Over/Below (O/U) this season.
Washington has gained six straight getting into the Alamo Bowl behind the nation’s chief in passing yards per game, QB Michael Penix Jr. The Huskies are 7-5 ATS and eight-3-1 O/U in 2022.
Moneyline: Washington (+130), Texas (-150) ATS: Washington +3 (-110), Texas -3 (-110)Whole — 67 — Over: -110, UNDER: -110
It’s exhausting to pick a facet in this game however Texas-Washington screams UNDER 67 (-110). In accordance with Pregame.com, a slight majority of the money is on the Below.
Whereas two-thirds of the bets positioned on the time of writing are on the Over. This is what’s referred to as a Execs vs. Joe’s game in the betting market.
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Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. passes towards the Colorado Buffaloes at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers/Getty Photos)
Typically, the cash column of the betting splits is thought of the sharper facet of the market as a result of skilled bettors wager so much more money than your common Joe.
Not solely that however let’s …
Fade an overrated Huskies offense
Washington’s offense appear like world beaters however have performed weak defenses. The Huskies’ power of schedule ranks 69th nationally.
Listed below are Washington’s finest offensive performances vs. Energy 5 colleges this season adopted by their opponents’ rank in defensive factors/play (bear in mind there are solely 131 FBS packages):
40 vs. Stanford (ranked one hundred and twentieth) on Sept. 24 38 vs. Arizona State (112th) on Oct. 8 49 vs. Arizona (122nd) on Oct. 15 37 vs. Oregon (97th) on Nov. 1254 vs. Colorado (131st) on Nov. 19 51 on Washington State (thirty second) on Nov. 26
Clearly, Washington State’s protection is fairly good. In any other case, Washington has performed crappy defenses.
Nonetheless …
Texas’s protection is low-key nasty
The Longhorns are eleventh in factors/play allowed, twentieth in yards per play (YPP) and has proven up vs. high quality offenses. They’ve performed the second-hardest power of schedule, in accordance with Sports Reference.
Texas held Alabama with 2021 Heisman Trophy profitable QB Bryce Younger to simply 20 factors. The Longhorns held TCU with 2022 Heisman finalist, QB Max Duggan, to simply 17 factors. Duggan threw for 124 yards and the Horned Frogs averaged simply 3.9 YPP in that game.
Texas Longhorns DB Ryan Watts sacks TCU Horned Frogs QB Max Duggan at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. (John Rivera/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos)
Texas shut out Oklahoma 49-0 in the Red River Rivalry and the Sooners averaged simply 3.3 YPP. Plus the Longhorns are 1-5 to the Below with a -13.3 whole margin in games with a complete larger than 60.
On the other hand …
Texas has a suspect offense
To begin with, the Longhorns changed sophomore QB Hudson Card midseason with true freshman QB Quinn Ewers who’s been considerably worse.
Ewers has a 56.6% completion rate (Card accomplished 69.4% of his passes), 7.3 adjusted yards per move (Card has a 9.4 AY/P) and a 131.4 QB Score (Card has a 158.1 QB RTG).
Texas’s top-two working backs each opted out of the Alamo Bowl. Longhorns RB Bijan Robinson led the Massive XII in speeding yards (1,580) and speeding TDs (18) and gained the Doak Walker Award for the nation’s finest working again.
Texas Longhorns RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson have fun a TD towards the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. (Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos)
Except for Robinson and backup RB Roschon Johnson, the other three RBs on the Longhorns’ depth chart have rushed for a mixed 271 yards. Washington’s protection is thirtieth in yards per rush allowed (3.6) as properly.
Lastly …
‘Fashion make fights’
This is one other method of me saying, “There’s going to be lots of working clock in Texas-Washington”. Neither can get offenses off the sector however each defenses stiffen up in the red zone.
Washington has the most effective third-down conversion rate in the nation and is 121st in opponent’s third-down conversion proportion. Texas is twelfth in opponent’s red zone scoring rate and Washington is seventeenth.
Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Keondre Coburn factors to the sky after sacking Oklahoma Sooners QB Davis Beville on the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas. (Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos)
Moreover, the Huskies are eleventh in turnovers per game and 118th in turnovers per game compelled. Whereas the Longhorns are 107th in turnovers per game compelled and twenty first in turnovers per game.
Each defenses rank exterior the top-100 in opponent’s completion rate. This goes again to my authentic level: “A lot of working clock”.
The offenses in Texas-Washington will be capable to transfer the chains however will accept 3s as an alternative of 6s when contained in the red zone.
Alamo Bowl Finest Bet: UNDER 67 in Texas-Washington at DraftKings Sportsbook, right down to 65
Odds for the Below in the Alamo Bowl between the Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Dec. 28 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
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