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2022 ZOZO Championship Winning Wagers – OutKick – OutKick
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Inzai, Japan hosts the fourth annual 2022 ZOZO Championship teeing off Wednesday evening stateside. Narashino is a Par 70 that stretches 7,079 yards and the ZOZO is a no-cut event with a 78-golfer field.
Defending champion, and Japanese native, Hideki Matsuyama highlights the field that includes last week’s Shriners Children’s Opener winner Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa and 2020 Tokyo Olympics gold medalist Xander Schauffele.
The total grade of my bet slip for last week’s Shriners Children’s Open is +1.05 units (u). The recap of my Shriners action is at the bottom. My 2022-23 PGA Tour balance is now -0.13u.
ZOZO ‘3 Amigos’
All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
Sungjae Im
Sungjae Im (Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Im is my top-ranked golfer in this field and finished third at the ZOZO in 2019. He would’ve finished higher if he didn’t struggle on the greens. But, Im is hot with the putter entering the ZOZO, gaining 2.8 strokes per round on the greens.
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Also, Im grades highly across several vital stats. He is first in this field for Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450, which is factored in because four of the six toughest holes at the ZOZO are within that yardage.
He is top-five in Strokes Gained (SG): Par 3, SG: Par 5, Good Drives, SG: Ball-Striking (BS) and Greens-in-Regulation (GIRs) Gained.
Furthermore, Im is gaining strokes on the field over his last 5, 10 and 20 events in the five major golf categories (Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, Approach, Around-the-Green and Putting).
Im has the most SG in the last 24 rounds out of this ZOZO field. Here’s how Im has finished in his previous six tourneys:
Seventh at the Shriners Children’s Open Second at the TOUR Championship 15th at the BMW Championship 12th at the FedEx St. Jude’s Championship Second at the Wyndham Championship Second at the 3M Open
Finally, Im is fifth in SG in this field at no-cut golf tournaments and first in SG in moderate to very windy conditions. The weather forecast is predicting wind speeds in the low to mid-teens at the ZOZO.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Sungjae Im odds:
Win: (0.5u: +900)Top-5: (0.5u: +200)Top-10: (1.25u: -105)
Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Bradley busted out of a terrible slump with a fifth-place finish in last week’s Shriners. We are getting a good price on Bradley because of the said slump.
However, Bradley’s game fits this course well and he’s played well at the Narashino. He finished seventh at the 2019 ZOZO after tying the course record by shooting a first-round 63 and a 13th at the 2021 ZOZO.
Also, Bradley is second in this field for SG at the comp courses used, fourth in SG at Par 70 courses less than 7,200 yards with difficult scoring conditions and seventh in SG in moderate to windy weather conditions.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Keegan Bradley odds:
Win: (0.125u: +3500)Top-5: (0.5u: +600)Top-10: (0.75u: +250)
Mito Pereira
Mito Pereira (Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
Pereira is just too good of a ball striker to not bet for a second consecutive week. He ranks third in this field according to my numbers including top-six across this ZOZO field in SG: BS, SG: Approach (App), GIRs Gained and Good Drives.
Pereira’s iron play carried him to a fourth-place finish in last week’s Shriners thanks to picking up nearly 10 strokes on the field T2G and 9.1 strokes in App. Plus Pereira is fourth in SG for this field in moderate to windy weather conditions.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Mito Pereira odds:
Win: (0.125u: +3500)Top-5: (0.5u: +600)Top-10: (0.75u: +250)
Head-To-Heads
Collin Morikawa (-120) vs. Viktor Hovland
Collin Morikawa (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Hovland finished 47th in his only appearance at Narashino while Morikawa finished seventh and 22nd in his two appearances. Also, Morikawa has been a lot more dialed in with his irons recently.
Over the past five events, Morikawa is gaining 3.0 strokes per round T2G and 3.1 in App whereas Hovland is giving up -0.7 strokes per round T2G and gaining just 0.2 strokes in App.
Finally, Morikawa ranks higher for SG at no-cut events (fourth vs. 13th), in moderate to windy weather (second vs. sixth) and much better on short Par 70 courses with difficult scoring conditions (sixth to 73rd).
Sebastian Munoz (-110) vs. Davis Riley
Sebastián Muñoz (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Aside from a 19th-place finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier this month, Riley has been struggling. But, the Sanderson is in the Country Club of Jackson (Mississippi), which is a course Riley is familiar with as a Mississippi native and graduate of Alabama.
Otherwise, Riley is -0.37 SG vs. his personal expectations over the last five events including a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship in Sept.
Munoz ranks 25th in my key stat model (Riley is 57th) and third in SG at no-cut events. It’s only Riley’s PGA second season and this is his first no-cut event on Tour. Munoz ranks third in this field for SG at no-cut events and finished fourth in last year’s ZOZO.
Lastly, Riley ranks 60th for SG in my comp courses used and 61st in for SG at short Par 70 courses with difficult scoring conditions (out of 78 golfers in this field).
Final Bet Slip
Sungjae Im: Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (2.25u) Keegan Bradley: Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (1.375u) Mito Pereira: Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (1.375u) Collin Morikawa (-120) > Viktor Hovland (1.25u) Sebastian Munoz (-110) > Davis Riley (1.25u)
Shriners Children’s Open Recap
Win & Picks To Place
Mito Pereira: (+4.5u)Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20Aaron Wise: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1.2u)Mark Hubbard: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1.25u)
H2Hs
Sungjae Im > Patrick Cantlay (-1u)Taylor Pendrith > Alex Noren
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