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5 NFL Betting Picks From Analyst On 37-17 Run – Mobile Betting Online
We’ve had an excellent run with our NFL betting picks on the Mobile Betting Online Bets with Geoff Clark podcast. To this point this season, we’re cashing at a 69% (good) clip at 37-17.
And, as a result of it’s Christmas weekend, I’m giving FIVE picks this week. Usually I don’t give out more than 4. However this is a particular weekend for all the nice little women and good little boys. Let’s not waste time and get into our NFL betting picks for Week 16 after a fast recap of Week 15…
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks (3-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos Underneath 36
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders Over 44.5
New York Giants +4.5 over Washington Commanders
Inexperienced Bay Packers -7 over Los Angeles Rams
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Week 16 NFL Betting Picks
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings Over 48 factors
Admittedly, Vikings totals have given me matches this season. I misplaced badly when I took the Underneath in their Thanksgiving Day win over the Patriots. I’ve been making an attempt to determine Minnesota out ever since and I’ve come to the conclusion that this is simply an Over staff. They make massive performs — each positively and negatively — they usually don’t play any protection.
Plus, folks assume Minnesota they usually assume good protection and Kirk Cousins. That doesn’t precisely scream Over. However Cousins is a really competent quarterback — evidenced by erasing a 33-level deficit in one half towards an above-common protection — and the Vikings protection is under-common.
Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson know easy methods to put up factors, so we’ll take the over in their game towards the Giants with certainly one of our 5 NFL betting picks. (Photograph by Stephen Maturen/Getty Photographs)
We get an ideal storm here, too, as a result of the Giants protection is truly horrible. In line with Warren Sharp on Twitter… “Each defenses have struggled since week 10… Opponent % of scoring drives: MIN – 53% (NFL-worst) NYG – 42% (eighth-worst).”
Over the previous 5 weeks, New York has allowed 31 factors to Detroit, 28 factors to Dallas, and 48 factors to Philadelphia. The one staff they have been in a position to cease was Washington (20 factors after which 12 factors), however Minnesota’s offense is far superior.
Plus, we get Daniel Jones in a dome. Jones hasn’t had much dome expertise in his profession since he performs his house games outdoor — as do two of the three groups in his division — however in restricted motion he has been excellent. His passer score indoors is 15 factors larger than outdoor. He completes 67.5% of dome passes vs. 63.5% outdoor.
Minnesota is a heavy over staff this season (9-5 O/U, tied for highest over share) and even more in order a house favourite (6-1 O/U). Every of their previous 4 games have gone over the full by a median of 14 (!!) factors per game. To me, this line must be in the 50s, so we’ll take the worth on the Over.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs Over 49 factors
Very related scenario here to the one above: above-common offenses and under-common defenses. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs offense isn’t simply above-common, both: it’s Godly. Their EPA/play is the very best in the NFL by a good margin. And defensively, they only allowed 24 factors to Houston and 28 factors to Denver.
The Seahawks characteristic a Top 10 offense, as properly, in keeping with EPA/play. And their protection is hovering across the Backside 5. The one purpose this line is under 50, in my opinion, is due to climate. A lot has been fabricated from the truth that the complete nation is going to get hit with an unimaginable chilly entrance. Totals throughout the league have been depressed in response.
However, here’s the factor: chilly climate doesn’t essentially imply low scoring. However folks assume it does, which truly creates worth on the Over. Per Accuweather: since 2005, games with temperatures 20° or decrease are 25-22 O/U. The most important issue in affecting the full is wind. Then precipitation, with rain truly being somewhat worse than snow.
Right here is the present climate forecast for Saturday in Kansas Metropolis in keeping with Stadium Forecast: “Sunny and chilly, with a high close to 15. West northwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.”
That’s fairly delicate. A wind round 10 received’t have much have an effect on and there’s no snow forecasted. Each of those groups leans in direction of the Over, with Seattle enjoying to a +5.3/game to the Over (highest in the NFL) and Kansas Metropolis at +2.9/game (fifth-highest).
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs shouldn’t have too much bother scoring factors towards the Seahawks, so we’ll again the over in our second NFL betting pick. (Photograph by Cooper Neill/Getty Photographs)
Usually, I take more Unders than Overs as a result of typically numbers are inflated in direction of the Over. Why? The general public prefers to bet the Over. However when climate is an element, the general public jumps on the Underneath, believing themselves to be gaining a bonus. However the real benefit lies in going towards that notion. If this game have been being performed indoors, I assume the full could be someplace round 55.
I assume we’re getting big worth with a number below 50, so go forward and take it.
Washington Commanders +7 over San Francisco 49ers
There is virtually nothing I hate more than a handicapper who says “I simply have a sense.” That being stated … I really simply have a sense that this game is going to be shut. I assume Washington can even win.
Sure, you read that accurately. One among my favourite handicapping angles is to fade what we we noticed most not too long ago. And what we noticed most not too long ago was Washington shedding to the Giants on nationwide tv, scoring simply 12 factors. That’s not ideally suited, particularly contemplating San Francisco’s protection is much higher than New York.
So what the hell am I doing here? Nicely, Washington’s protection is fairly rattling good, too. And I love the Brock Purdy story as much as the subsequent man, however there’s a purpose he was the final pick in the NFL Draft and began the season not even dressing for games. He’s due for regression.
The Washington Commanders protection ought to have some success towards regression candidate Brock Purdy, so we’ll take them to maintain it shut in NFL betting pick #3. (Photograph by G Fiume/Getty Photographs)
And, speak about recency bias: the 49ers are primarily 3-0 with Purdy (technically Jimmy G will get credit score for the win towards Miami since he began, however Purdy performed just about the complete game). That features completely dump trucking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady, 35-7.
One of many main elements here to me is motivation. The 49ers don’t actually have that much to play for. They’ve already clinched the NFC West they usually have just about no shot at catching the 13-1 Philadelphia Eagles for the #1 seed. They’re going to complete both second or third in the NFC, and the distinction in these spots is negligible.
Washington, on the other hand, is hanging onto a playoff spot by a thread. Their tie towards the Giants is the one factor protecting them in proper now over 7-7 Seattle and seven-7 Detroit. They want each game badly at this level.
The full for this game is sitting at 37. That’s very low. Vegas thinks it is going to be a low-scoring game and we’re backing a staff that’s getting a landing in a probably low-scoring affair. That’s a lot sufficient for me to drag the set off here.
Miami Dolphins -3.5 over Inexperienced Bay Packers
FADE RECENCY BIAS! Sure it was a win over the Rams, however the Inexperienced Bay Packers regarded fairly good on Monday Night time Soccer in entrance of a nationwide viewers. Miami, on the other hand, has misplaced three straight games. Sure, they saved it shut towards Buffalo in primetime, however I don’t assume the general public is much on their facet proper now.
This is an ideal bounce-again spot for the Miami offense. Inexperienced Bay’s protection stinks. They don’t have anybody that can keep on with Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle so the Dolphins ought to be capable to rating. Plus, Miami truly regarded actually good on the bottom towards Buffalo and I assume they can management the tempo and tempo in this game.
I don’t see the Packers protection having any reply for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle so we’ll swallow the factors in NFL betting pick #4. (Photograph by way of Getty Photographs)
The Dolphins have torched unhealthy defenses this season, particularly in the NFC North. They hung 31 on Detroit and 35 on Chicago. They solely scored 16 towards Minnesota, however that was with out Tua. In line with EPA/play, Miami is simply outdoors the second-highest tier. They’re a notch under the Buffalos and Cincinnatis of the world, however an excellent staff. The Packers, in the meantime, are very common.
If house-discipline benefit is value between 1.5-2 factors, which means on a impartial discipline Vegas is saying the Dolphins are nearly two factors higher than Inexperienced Bay. That’s simply not true. Miami is must be nearer to 4-5 factors higher than Inexperienced Bay and this line must be much nearer to a landing. The truth is, when I noticed Miami was simply 3.5-level favorites, I assumed they have been on the highway.
We additionally get a pleasant relaxation and preparation benefit here, because the Dolphins performed on Saturday and the Packers performed Monday evening. Don’t underestimate Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel with a pair additional days to organize. In a really massive game for the Dolphins in terms of playoff place, anticipate a posh gameplan for his or her first-yr head man. There’s worth in this line, so lay the factors.
Las Vegas Raiders +2 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Yeah, this is fairly terrifying. The Las Vegas Raiders turned the primary staff in NFL historical past to blow 4 double-digit second-half leads in one season. And, it ought to have been 5 final week, if not for a controversial call on a landing catch and arguably the dumbest play in NFL historical past.
So why in the world would we take them here? Fairly merely, I assume they’re the higher staff. Primarily based on the house-discipline, Las Vegas (the betting entity, not the staff) believes these two groups are primarily equal.
Davante Adams and Derek Carr ought to find loads of success towards Pittsburgh, so we’ll hope they can lastly maintain a lead and get it accomplished for us in our last NFL betting pick of the week. (Photograph by Steve Marcus/Getty Photographs)
Nonetheless, the Raiders have quietly received 4 out of the previous 5 and it ought to have been 5-straight games if not for that loopy Baker Mayfield drive. Sure, the Steelers have received three out of 4, however all of their wins have come towards groups decrease on the EPA chart than the Raiders: the Falcons, Colts and Panthers.
The truth is, if not for a season-opening win over Cincinnati, Pittsburgh wouldn’t have a single win over a staff ranked larger than Las Vegas. The Raiders, in the meantime, have crushed three groups higher than the Steelers in the previous 4 weeks alone: the Patriots, Seahawks and Chargers.
Sure, there’s an opportunity the Raiders will find a option to blow the game late. Let’s simply hope it’s on one thing like a two-level conversion for the win as a substitute of the additional level to tie and the 2 factors we’re getting nonetheless earn us the victory.
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